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Home»Commercial Real-estate»Rates edge upwards, but no need for panic
Commercial Real-estate

Rates edge upwards, but no need for panic

January 23, 2026No Comments2 Mins Read
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A house for sale in Oakville, Ont.

The new year is starting with a handful of hikes to leading default-insured rates, but nothing panic inducing.

The lowest nationally advertised two-year fixed climbed 20 basis points this week to 3.99 per cent (True North Mortgage), while the cheapest three-year fixed nudged up a modest five basis points to 3.89 per cent (Citadel Mortgage).

Regionally, there are deals galore. Among them, in no particular order:

  • Ratebuzz’s five-year fixed at 3.69 per cent (in Ontario; insured only)
  • Ratebuzz’s five-year variable at 3.39 per cent (also in Ontario; insured only)
  • Butler Mortgage’s three-year fixed at 3.64 per cent (in Alberta, B.C., Ontario; insured only)
  • Coast Capital’s three-year fixed at 3.84 per cent (in B.C.)
  • Coast Capital’s five-year fixed at 3.94 per cent (in B.C.)
  • Access Credit Union’s 3.45 per cent variable (in Manitoba)

Based on everything currently observable without clairvoyance, derivatives markets are pricing roughly 100 basis points of rate hikes over the next five years.

That hints at greater protection in medium- to longer-term

 
fixed rates

, especially when lenders pair them with fair prepayment penalties and flexible refinancing options.

However, one well-timed global crisis could flip this whole outlook upside down — just to remind everyone who’s really in charge: the universe and its random events.

In the near term, Friday’s Canadian and

U.S. jobs

reports could shuffle the deck on the

mortgage rates

you see below, so keep a watch on those headlines.

  • Five predictions on what mortgage shoppers can expect in 2026
  • 2025 delivered on more mortgage rate relief and there are still deals to be had
See also  Yet another signal that variable rates are staying put for now

Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.

This table reflects the prevailing rates at the time this story was published. For the best mortgage rates in Canada right now, click

here

.



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