Based in part on comments from Zillow executives this week, the housing analyst casts a bearish outlook for the housing market in 2026.
Forget what NAR’s economists say.
Tracey Ryniec, a value stock strategist with the investment research firm Zacks, has a negative outlook for the housing market this year.
“Residential real estate is not going to rebound this year,” Ryniec wrote in a post on the social media platform X this week.
Zacks also shared a quote from Ryniec in which she pointed to trends with Zillow and comments by the company’s executives during a call in which they discussed their earnings results and general outlook for the market this year.
“Zillow finished down 16.5 [percent] today. They commented in their earnings press release that housing market conditions will continue to be ‘challenging’ in Q1,” Ryniec said in the statement. “The housing recession isn’t going to be over this year. The spring selling season is going to be a bust.”
“Zillow finished down 16.5% today. They commented in their earnings press release that housing market conditions will continue to be “challenging” in Q1. The housing recession isn’t going to be over this year. The spring selling season is going to be a bust.”
– @TraceyRyniec,…
— Zacks.com (@ZacksResearch) February 11, 2026
The comments are a stark contrast with the forecast issued late last year by NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Yun said that he expects existing-home sales to rise 14 percent this year compared to last.
That outlook was by far the rosiest among economists at some of the biggest companies in the industry, most of whom expected a roughly flat housing market this year.
In contrast, Realtor.com put expected home sale growth at 1.7 percent this year.
Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen gave an outlook of 4 percent growth this year, but left some room for hope of a better year if various macroeconomic factors all lined up to create a “goldilocks” environment that would push home sales up to 10 percent this year.
While Zillow forecast for existing-home sales to climb 4.3 percent this year compared to last, its economists sought to set expectations for a flat market this year.
“On the macro front … we planned the revenue for housing to not do much this year,” Zillow CFO Jeremy Hofmann said during a call with investors on Tuesday. “We are starting to see affordability get better. But not necessarily seeing it play out in homes being sold fast or anything like that.”
Housing affordability has improved, Hofmann noted. But it may take time for that to show up in home sales, he said.
“We think that’s a good sign that should drive a broader recovery over time,” Hofmann said on the call. “We’re just not necessarily planning for it in 2026.”
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