Despite a trade war and other geopolitical tensions, as well as the ongoing mortgage renewal wave, the majority of Canadian homeowners are still meeting their monthly mortgage payments, according to a new poll.
About 83 per cent of Canadian homeowners say they have never missed a mortgage payment, according to a survey from brokerage True North Mortgage Inc., released on Tuesday.
Still, that doesn’t mean households aren’t facing financial strain. More than one-third of respondents say it has been challenging to keep up mortgage payments over the past year.
“It hasn’t been an easy year for homeowners,” said Dan Eisner, chief executive of True North Mortgage. “There’s been a lot of trade and tariff talk over the last year, which is creating a lot of will-they, won’t-they indecision for home buyers, and then
interest rates
have moved around quite a bit.”
Canadian government five-year bond yields have also surged recently amid the war on Iran, which Eisner said is already affecting the five-year fixed mortgage rate.
“Signs of financial stress are evident,” said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, deputy chief economist at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Canadian households are still very leveraged, so (they have) high levels of debt.”
Mortgage debt
hit $1.95 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 2.6 per cent increase from the previous year, according to the latest
data from Equifax
Canada Inc.
And while the overall mortgage arrears rate in Canada remains low at 0.22 per cent, it is rising more quickly among borrowers whose mortgages originated during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 and the post‑pandemic period, said Bourassa-Ochoa.
There is a specific localized impact in higher-cost areas, such as Toronto, according to
. Toronto’s mortgage arrears rate has more than quadrupled, to 0.26 per cent, from post-pandemic lows and is expected to continue climbing.
Higher
household debt
, a weak labour market and declining home values have contributed to an acceleration in Toronto homeowners struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments. Bourassa-Ochoa said Toronto homeowners in dire financial straits cannot even turn to the sale of their home to dig themselves out of debt, due to declining prices and increasing number of days on the market.
So how are the majority of Canadians keeping up with their home loans?
True North said it saw a 67 per cent increase in refinances last year, with possible reasons including debt consolidation and extending the mortgage
amortization
period to reduce payments.
Bourassa-Ochoa said CMHC has seen many homeowners increase their amortization period, though this too comes at a cost of higher total interest paid over the life of the loan. “There is this trade-off between short-term
affordability
and long-term wealth.”
She added homebuyers are moving away from five-year fixed mortgages and are securing longer-term home loans instead to spread out their payments.
More than half (57 per cent) of homeowners indicated in the True North survey that they have delayed making other financial decisions to prioritize mortgage payments. About 36 per cent have postponed travel or vacations, 31 per cent have shelved home repairs or renovations and 27 per cent have delayed retirement savings or investments.
Nearly a quarter of respondents said they postponed paying off other debts. Data consistently show borrowers tend to
default on other types of debt
(such as auto loans and credit) first before defaulting on their mortgage, which can come with more severe repercussions, such as foreclosure, according to the CMHC
“Typically, homeowners facing financial struggle will prioritize their mortgage,” Eisner said, adding that he was initially surprised the proportion of those who had never missed a payment wasn’t higher, such as in the mid-90s, instead of 83 per cent.
Bourassa-Ochoa said she is seeing consumers take on more debt, such as credit cards and loans. “Consumers are trying to move things around … to make ends meet.”
The CMHC is watching out for any changes in inflation and labour market conditions, especially in regions impacted by tariffs, such as Ontario and its automobile industry, Bourassa-Ochoa said.
The national unemployment rate rose to 6.7 per cent in February, as the economy lost 84,000 jobs, according to the
latest jobs data
from Statistics Canada.
“When you look at Canada’s history, the main driver of mortgage arrears has always been unemployment,” Bourassa-Ochoa said. “If we see a big economic shock that would result in massive job losses, that’s really where the risk is significantly higher.”
• Email: slouis@postmedia.com