Remarkable what a week can do to rate expectations.
Last Friday, we hit lows in government
bond yields
that we haven’t seen since October. (Yields usually lead
fixed mortgage rates
.)
This week, as this is being written, Canada’s five-year yield is on a Saturn rocket blasting towards 2.90 per cent. It closed last Friday at 2.67 per cent.
The propellant is fear — specifically, that Middle East instability keeps oil prices elevated and
inflation
along with it.
So far, only a few lenders have boosted fixed rates, but if yield pressure holds,
leading advertised offers
could climb by at least 10 basis points.
For now, the lowest nationally advertised fixed rates are still sitting in the high threes and low fours. That’s at least a quarter-point (0.25) above
variable rates
, which remain the choice of more than four out of 10 new borrowers.
Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
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